June 6, 1982

June 6, 2007 

Quarter century from First Lebanon War

Jitters at Israeli Syrian border

Both the Israeli and Syrian armies are maneuvering and training for a possible showdown of war in the summer. There are reports that President Bashar Assad of Syria is both secretly negotiating and intensively preparing his country for conflict.

Twenty five years ago the war that was then dubbed “operation peace for Galilee “commenced.  Its stated purpose was to distance PLO terrorists from the northern borders that were continually shooting missiles into Israel. There were other reasons as well. Israel engaged Syrian troops in that conflict as many units from the regular Syrian army were stationed in Lebanon. These engagements were massive tank battles that mostly crippled the Syrian army as many of its units were completely destroyed. Many analysts claim that Israel wanted to engage not only the PLO but the Syrians as well. The Syrian Army had built up a rather massive modern well equipped military force that was preparing to take back the Golan Heights by force. Israeli Intelligence expected another attack from Syria similar to the one staged in 1973 . This was to be avoided at all costs.

A war that would preempt any Syrian surprises was a major element of military thinking in 1982. Now as then it seems Syria would like to return to itself the Golan heights lost in the 1967 war. Israel may need to preempt again to forestall any surprise attack. Now that preempting is much more complicated as Syria will likely send many hundreds of missiles in the north and center of Israel.

These war jitters are manifesting themselves into military maneuvers and near the border.

Assad apparently is very encouraged by the relative success of the Hezbollah in the last Lebanon war. He would love to try his luck Backing of Iran and tangible military support may push Assad over the edge making history repeat itself twenty five years later.